Washington State NWMLS Market Update for April 2023

The latest report from NWMLS summarizing April activity shows year-over-year drops in new listings, pending sales and closed sales, an increase in total active listings, and lower prices.

Brokers reported 7,137 pending sales of single-family homes and condos during April, down nearly 27% from a year ago, but notching the highest volume so far this year, edging out March by one transaction. Pending sales are up more than 23% from January’s total.

Closed sales slipped 36% from the year-ago total of 8,344 to last month’s total of 5,338. Compared to January’s figure of 3,264 sales, April’s completed transactions surged 63.5%.

The median price for last month’s sales of single-family homes and condos across the 26 counties in the report was $603,250, down about 8.6% when compared to twelve months ago. When compared to January’s median price of $557,250, prices are up nearly 8.3%. April marked the fourth consecutive month of rising prices.

In King County, which accounted for 35% of last month’s closed sales, the median price of $790,244 fell 10.2% from the year earlier price of $880,000. A comparison with January shows prices are up 9.3%.

Northwest MLS brokers added 7,303 new listings to the database during April. That total was down from both March, when they added 7,904 new listings, and the same month a year, when they added 11,681 new listings. On a percentage basis, the year-over-year drop was 37.5%.

With slower sales, total supply improved compared to a year ago.

At the end of April, there were 8,114 active listings in the NWMLS database, an increase of 1,600 from the year-ago supply for a gain of nearly 24.6%.

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Source: NWMLS 5/4/2023

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Washington State NWMLS Market Update for March 2023

Brokers added 7,904 new listings during March across the 26 counties in the Northwest MLS report. That total is down nearly 30% from a year ago, but up more than 51% from February, when brokers added 5,231 new listings of single family homes and condominiums.

At the end of March, there were 8,007 active listings in the MLS database, up more than 73% from a year ago and up about 10.7% from February’s selection. Even with those gains, the supply, measured by months of inventory, was 1.38 months (less than six weeks), well below the four-to-six month level that industry experts say indicates a balanced market.

Pending sales jumped more than 14.5% from February, rising from 6,230 mutually accepted offers to last month’s systemwide total of 7,136. Compared to a year ago, pending sales are down 29%, with higher interest rates believed to be a factor in the slower pace.

Prices overall were down about 7.5% from a year ago, dropping from $638,000 to $590,000, with considerable variation across the 26 counties in the NWMLS report.

Brokers reported 5,817 closed sales last month, a drop of about 27% from the year ago total (7,989). Compared to February, closed sales jumped more than 36.6%.

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Source: NWMLS 4/6/2023

Washington State NWMLS Market Update for February 2023

Open house traffic has been brisk around Western Washington, signaling the start of the spring market, suggested brokers at Northwest Multiple Listing Service. They noted softening prices are enticing some would-be buyers, while others remain on the sidelines hoping fluctuating mortgage rates will stabilize or decline.

Newly released statistics from the MLS for February show upticks in new listings, pending sales, closed sales and median prices compared to January, but when compared to the same month a year ago, figures for those metrics declined:

• Brokers added 5,231 new listings of single family homes and condos to inventory last month, about one-third fewer than twelve months ago.
• Pending sales declined 19%, from the year-ago total of 7,697 to 6,230.
• Year-over-year (YOY) closed sales dropped 17.3%, from 5,147 to 4,258 transactions.
• Median prices slipped 1.7% areawide, from $585,000 to $575,000.

“Although the number of homes for sale in the tri-county area of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties is more than double from a year ago, there were still fewer homes available to buy in February than in January,” observed Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate. “Furthermore,” he continued, “listings were more than 40% lower than pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that homeowners may be holding off on selling until the market stabilizes.”

“Year over year, home sales prices are down, but that isn’t surprising given that a year ago homebuyers were scrambling to buy in the face of mortgage rates that were about to skyrocket. I expect we will see a similar story for the next few months.” Fluctuating rates likely contributed to recent sales activity, suggested Gardner. “What is interesting is that home prices rose between January and February which tells me that buyers jumped on the opportunity to take advantage of mortgage rates that dipped below 6.1% five times between mid-January end early February.”

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Source: NWMLS 3/6/2023

Washington State NWMLS Market Update for January 2023

Northwest MLS brokers are encouraged by declining mortgage rates, with some saying pent-up demand is triggering multiple offers.

Pending sales around Washington state reached the highest level since October and surged nearly 44% from December. However, last month’s 5,776 mutually accepted offers were down about 9% from a year ago.

Prices on last month’s closed sales edged up slightly, at 0.41%, compared with twelve months ago.

The selection of properties, based on the number of total active listings in the MLS database, improved significantly from a year ago, rising from 3,092 listings to 8,220 at month end.

Brokers added 4,925 new listings to the MLS database in January, about 1,000 fewer than the same month a year ago.

The January report from Northwest MLS shows Adams, Columbia, Grays Harbor, Okanogan and San Juan counties each had more than six months of inventory. Ten counties had less than three months of supply.

On February 2nd, Freddie Mac (the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) reported the U.S. weekly average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.09%, down about a full point from November when it peaked at just over 7%. According to its research, this one percentage point rate reduction can allow as many as three million more mortgage-ready consumers to qualify and afford a $400,000 loan, the median home price in the U.S.

George Ratiu, manager of economic research at Realtor.com, said the recent decline in rates means for today’s buyer of a median priced home, the down payment amount is lower than it would have been last summer. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun suggested the “recent low point in home sales activity is likely over.” Commenting on pending sales for December, he stated, “Mortgage rates are the dominant factor driving home sales, and recent declines in rates are clearly helping to stabilize the market.”

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Source: NWMLS 2/6/2023

Washington State NWMLS Market Update for December 2022

The MLS report for December shows continued growth in the number of active listings compared to the same month a year ago, but sharp drops in the number of pending and closed sales. Last month’s prices for single family homes and condominiums that sold across the 26 counties in the report dropped 0.51% from twelve months ago, marking the first year-over-year price decline since March 2012.

Year-over-year prices for last month’s sales of single family homes and condos (combined) declined in 17 counties and rose in nine counties. The median sales price was $570,000, down $2,900 (-0.51%) from the year-ago figure of $572,900. Last year’s median price overall peaked in May 2022, at $660,000.

The median price for single family homes (excluding condos) that sold last month was $587,500, down 0.42% from a year ago when it was $590,000. Condo prices edged up last month compared to the same month a year ago, increasing from $435,000 to $440,000 for a gain of 1.15%.

Brokers added 2,980 new listings to inventory last month. That total was 1,637 fewer than the number added during December 2021 (4,617).

Sellers accepted 4,017 offers from buyers, down about 31% from the year-ago volume of pending sales (5,850).

At month-end, buyers could choose from 9,475 active listings, nearly three times as many as a year ago when 3,240 homes and condos were offered for sale area-wide.

The Northwest MLS report shows about 2.1 months of inventory at the end of December, marking the fourth consecutive month with at least eight weeks of supply. Six counties, including King, Kitsap, and Snohomish, still have less than two months of supply.

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Source: NWMLS 1/6/2023

Washington State NWMLS Market Update for November 2022

Northwest MLS figures show both pending and closed sales fell sharply from a year ago, but median prices system-wide edged up slightly (0.88%), from $570,000 to $575,000. Pending sales across the 26 counties in the report were down 40% (dropping from 8,571 a year ago to 5,106) while closed sales fell 42% (declining from 8,976 to 5,194).

The volume of closed sales, at 5,194, was the lowest level since February (5,147) and January (5,085). Compared to January’s median price of $555,000, last month’s buyers paid 3.6% more ($575,000).

Inventory statistics were mixed. Brokers added 4,890 new listings during November, a decline of 24.2% compared to the same month a year ago when they added 6,455 new listings.

At month end, there were 12,245 total active listings, a whopping increase (about 165%) from the selection of a year ago when there were only 4,621 active listings.

Measured by months of inventory, November’s supply, at 2.36 months, was best since January 2019 when the overall selection reached 2.4 months of inventory. Fifteen of the 26 counties reported price increases from a year ago, with 11 counties having declines. All four counties in the Puget Sound region experienced modest price gains, ranging from about 1.1% in Kitsap County to 2.9% in Snohomish County.

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Source: NWMLS 12/5/2022

Washington State NWMLS Market Update for October 2022

The latest Northwest MLS stats show 6,435 pending sales last month, and about the same volume (6,464) of closed sales. Both figures were down from the year-ago totals, with pending sales dropping about 39% and closings declining around 35%.

Median sales prices still rose year-over-year in most of the 26 counties on the report. Area-wide, the median price on last month’s completed sales of single family homes and condominiums was $595,000. That was an increase of about 3.5% from twelve months ago, but a decline of approximately 9% from May when prices peaked at $660,000.

Last month’s closings in King County had a median price of $811,000, up more than 8% from the year-ago figure of $750,000.

Brokers added 7,260 new listings during October, down about 21% from the same month a year ago. At month end, the selection included 14,214 active listings of single family homes and condos system-wide. That was more than double the year-ago inventory of 6,588.

The uptick in supply boosted the months of inventory figure to 2.2. That is the highest level, based on this metric, since January 2019.

“Even with more choice on the market than we’ve seen in several years, pending sales fell last month,” remarked Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate. “The cause is almost certainly rising mortgage rates, which rose from 6.65% early in the month and ended above 7.1%; this is clearly having an impact on buyers,” he added.

Gardner believes many buyers may remain sidelined until mortgage rates stabilize, but added he had “bad news for those buyers who are sitting on the fence waiting for home prices to implode.” He expects regional home values will turn modestly negative in 2023, but said, “those who hope to pick up a home ‘on the cheap’ are likely in for a long wait.”

Also commenting on interest rates was the National Association of REALTORS®, which noted the slight dip in mortgage rates this week despite the Federal Reserve approving another 0.75% rate hike for the fourth time this year.

NAR cited Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed mortgage rate that fell to 6.95%, down from 7.08% the previous week. “It seems that rates have already priced in some of the effect of the Fed’s higher interest rates. It is also promising that this was likely the last rate hike of this magnitude, as indicated by the Fed,” wrote Nadia Evangelou, NAR’s senior economist and director of forecasting.

Evangelou also speculated “a return to the sky-high interest rates of the 1980s isn’t likely in today’s economy” and drew comparisons to payments now with those of 40 years ago in today’s money. “In real terms, after adjusting the median home price for inflation, the monthly mortgage payment was about $450 higher in 1982 than it is now,” she wrote in a blog, adding, “If mortgage rates were currently 9% the monthly mortgage payment would be comparable to 1982 rates. Thus, in real values, current buyers pay less for their home purchase than buyers who purchased their home 40 years ago, although home prices are significantly higher now.”

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Source: NWMLS 11/7/2022

Washington State NWMLS Market Snapshot for September 2022

The report on September activity shows active listings are nearly doubled from a year ago, pending sales declined more than 31%, but prices in most counties are still rising.

• Closed sales during September were down 27% from a year ago.
• The median price on last month’s sales across the 26 counties in the report rose about 5.1% from a year ago, increasing from $570,000 to $599,000. Prices are down slightly from the August median of $600,000 and from the year’s peak of $660,000 that was reported in May.
• There were 15,008 active listings at the end of September, a jump of more than 93% from the year-ago total.
• Measured by months of supply, there are only two months of inventory, an improvement from one year ago when there was only about 0.75 months of supply.
• The inventory of single-family homes (excluding condominiums) nearly doubled from a year ago, up 98.6%. Condo listings jumped about 62%.
• Pending sales declined from a year ago, more than 31%. Last month’s pendings also fell 18.7%.

Uncertainty about the direction of mortgage rates is prompting buyer hesitancy, according to some market watchers.

Allison Schrager, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist who covers economics, recently commented about buyers “sitting on the sidelines until rates or prices or both decline.” She faults the Fed’s interference, writing “don’t count on rates falling to those pandemic lows. They were the result of extraordinary market manipulation from the Fed,” suggesting there will be a “hangover from the very low rates in 2020 and 2021.”

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Source: NWMLS 10/6/2022

Washington State NWMLS Market Snapshot for August 2022

In a report summarizing August activity, Northwest MLS figures showed a continued buildup of inventory – nearly double the selection of a year ago and more than three times the offerings at the end of the first quarter.

Brokers added 9,914 new listings to inventory during August, a drop from both July’s total of 11,805 and the year-ago total (11,437). At month end there were 14,683 active listings of single family homes and condominiums across the 26 counties in the NWMLS report.

Fewer sales were reported than a year ago, but both pending sales (mutually accepted offers) and closed sales improved on July’s figures.

Northwest MLS members reported 9,552 pending sales, a drop of nearly 22% from the year-ago total of 12,238 pendings. Every county except Columbia experienced a decline in pending sales. Activity picked up from July when there were 8,775 pending sales, a gain of nearly 8.9%.

Similarly, the volume of closed sales fell from a year ago. MLS members recorded 7,998 completed transactions, improving 4.6% from July’s total of 7,645. But last month’s closings were down about 24% from the same month a year ago when members notched 10,571 closed sales.

The median price on sales of single family homes and condos that closed during August was $600,000, up more than 3.6% from a year ago, but down slightly from July when the area-wide price was $625,000.

A comparison of the four counties in the Puget Sound region shows year-over-year median prices for single family homes increased from 5.9% in King County to 9.2% in Kitsap County.

A check of the sales price to list price ratio shows an area-wide ratio of 99.3%. In three counties – Pierce, Thurston and Douglas – sellers received slightly more than their asking price. In ten other counties, the ratio was between 99.1% and 99.9%.

Despite the surge in inventory, the Northwest MLS report shows there is only 1.84 months of supply – and that’s down from July’s figure of 2.01 months. Only six counties had more than three months of supply: Adams, Ferry, Lewis, Okanogan, Pacific, and San Juan. Most industry analysts consider four to six months of inventory to be a balanced market.

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Source: NWMLS 9/8/2022

Washington State NWMLS Market Snapshot for July 2022

The MLS report summarizing July statistics show 2.01 months of inventory system wide. Inventory of single family homes and condominiums across the 26 counties served by Northwest MLS has not exceeded two months since January 2019 when there was 2.3 months of supply.

Active listings have nearly doubled from a year ago, jumping from 7,948 offerings of single family homes and condos to 15,381 (up 93.5%). The addition of 11,805 new listings during the month contributed to the boost. Compared to June, the selection expanded by 1,976 listings (up 14.7%).

Evidence of slower activity appears in the sales figures. Pending sales retreated about 24% from a year ago, dropping from 11,567 to 8,775 mutually accepted offers. The NWMLS report shows a nearly 30% year-over-year decrease in closed sales (declining from 10,919 closings to 7,645).

Despite fewer sales, prices still rose, but at a slower rate. The median price on last month’s closed sales of single family homes and condos increased 6.1% from a year ago, rising from $589,000 to $625,000. For single family homes only (excluding condos), prices jumped about 6.6% and condo prices gained more than 8.6%.

In the four-county Puget Sound region, price changes ranged from a gain of about 2.7% in King County (from $789,000 to $810,000) to a jump of nearly 12.7% in Pierce County (from $501,500 to $565,000). Kitsap prices rose 5.4% while prices in Snohomish County increased 9.3%.

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Source: NWMLS 8/4/2022