Washington State NWMLS Market Update for February 2023

Open house traffic has been brisk around Western Washington, signaling the start of the spring market, suggested brokers at Northwest Multiple Listing Service. They noted softening prices are enticing some would-be buyers, while others remain on the sidelines hoping fluctuating mortgage rates will stabilize or decline.

Newly released statistics from the MLS for February show upticks in new listings, pending sales, closed sales and median prices compared to January, but when compared to the same month a year ago, figures for those metrics declined:

• Brokers added 5,231 new listings of single family homes and condos to inventory last month, about one-third fewer than twelve months ago.
• Pending sales declined 19%, from the year-ago total of 7,697 to 6,230.
• Year-over-year (YOY) closed sales dropped 17.3%, from 5,147 to 4,258 transactions.
• Median prices slipped 1.7% areawide, from $585,000 to $575,000.

“Although the number of homes for sale in the tri-county area of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties is more than double from a year ago, there were still fewer homes available to buy in February than in January,” observed Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate. “Furthermore,” he continued, “listings were more than 40% lower than pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that homeowners may be holding off on selling until the market stabilizes.”

“Year over year, home sales prices are down, but that isn’t surprising given that a year ago homebuyers were scrambling to buy in the face of mortgage rates that were about to skyrocket. I expect we will see a similar story for the next few months.” Fluctuating rates likely contributed to recent sales activity, suggested Gardner. “What is interesting is that home prices rose between January and February which tells me that buyers jumped on the opportunity to take advantage of mortgage rates that dipped below 6.1% five times between mid-January end early February.”

Watch the 1.25 minute market report video…

Source: NWMLS 3/6/2023

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RE/MAX National Housing Report for January 2023

Home Prices Almost Back Where
They Were a Year Ago as New Listings Surge

January’s Median Sale Price of $385,000 was down 1.0% from December, marking the seventh consecutive month of price declines. Year over year, the January 2023 figure was just 1.3% higher than this same time last year – an indication home prices are moderating.

At the same time, the number of homes for sale was 59.4% higher than a year ago in the report’s 51 metro areas, fed by a month-over-month increase in new listings of 39.8%. This month’s gain in new listings was higher than any month last year, with the biggest month-over-month increase in 2022 occurring in March with a gain of 27.7%.

Even with the surge in new listings, home sales declined 26.7% from December and 35.2% year- over-year.

Reflecting price declines, the average Close-to-List Price Ratio in January was 97%, meaning that homes sold, on average, for 3% less than the asking price. There has been a gradual decline in this metric since May 2022, when sellers were getting 3% over asking price on average. Homes sold in January were on the market 48 days – one day longer than in December and 12 days longer than one year ago.

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Washington State NWMLS Market Update for January 2023

Northwest MLS brokers are encouraged by declining mortgage rates, with some saying pent-up demand is triggering multiple offers.

Pending sales around Washington state reached the highest level since October and surged nearly 44% from December. However, last month’s 5,776 mutually accepted offers were down about 9% from a year ago.

Prices on last month’s closed sales edged up slightly, at 0.41%, compared with twelve months ago.

The selection of properties, based on the number of total active listings in the MLS database, improved significantly from a year ago, rising from 3,092 listings to 8,220 at month end.

Brokers added 4,925 new listings to the MLS database in January, about 1,000 fewer than the same month a year ago.

The January report from Northwest MLS shows Adams, Columbia, Grays Harbor, Okanogan and San Juan counties each had more than six months of inventory. Ten counties had less than three months of supply.

On February 2nd, Freddie Mac (the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) reported the U.S. weekly average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.09%, down about a full point from November when it peaked at just over 7%. According to its research, this one percentage point rate reduction can allow as many as three million more mortgage-ready consumers to qualify and afford a $400,000 loan, the median home price in the U.S.

George Ratiu, manager of economic research at Realtor.com, said the recent decline in rates means for today’s buyer of a median priced home, the down payment amount is lower than it would have been last summer. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun suggested the “recent low point in home sales activity is likely over.” Commenting on pending sales for December, he stated, “Mortgage rates are the dominant factor driving home sales, and recent declines in rates are clearly helping to stabilize the market.”

Watch the 1.25 minute market report video…

Source: NWMLS 2/6/2023

RE/MAX National Housing Report for December 2022

December Declines Accentuate
Year of Transition Toward Balanced Market

The housing market decelerated throughout 2022 creating more opportunities for homebuyers, in stark reversal of the frenzied seller’s market of the previous year. The year’s most telling stats were punctuated in December: Home sales were down 38% from a year ago while the number of homes for sale was up 69% in the report’s 53 metro areas.

Sales in every month of 2022 fell short of the previous year, with the percentage of decline starting out in single digits during the first quarter before topping 30% in the fourth quarter. The Median Sales Price of $385,000 was 1.3% higher year over year in December, compared to 13.9% higher year over year last January.

As in October and November, the average Close-to-List Price Ratio in December was 98%, meaning that homes sold, on average, for 2% less than the asking price. The ratio peaked at 103% in April and May compared to 100% in December 2021.

December inventory was down 12.2% from November but grew month-to-month in six of the last nine months.

Other notable metrics include:

• New listings recorded 2022’s largest month-to-month decline of 25.2% and finished 15.1% lower than a year ago.
• Homes sold in December were on the market for an average of 47 days. That was 10 more days than one year ago.
• December’s 2.5 months supply of inventory was unchanged from November but more than double the 1.2 of one year ago.

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Washington State NWMLS Market Update for December 2022

The MLS report for December shows continued growth in the number of active listings compared to the same month a year ago, but sharp drops in the number of pending and closed sales. Last month’s prices for single family homes and condominiums that sold across the 26 counties in the report dropped 0.51% from twelve months ago, marking the first year-over-year price decline since March 2012.

Year-over-year prices for last month’s sales of single family homes and condos (combined) declined in 17 counties and rose in nine counties. The median sales price was $570,000, down $2,900 (-0.51%) from the year-ago figure of $572,900. Last year’s median price overall peaked in May 2022, at $660,000.

The median price for single family homes (excluding condos) that sold last month was $587,500, down 0.42% from a year ago when it was $590,000. Condo prices edged up last month compared to the same month a year ago, increasing from $435,000 to $440,000 for a gain of 1.15%.

Brokers added 2,980 new listings to inventory last month. That total was 1,637 fewer than the number added during December 2021 (4,617).

Sellers accepted 4,017 offers from buyers, down about 31% from the year-ago volume of pending sales (5,850).

At month-end, buyers could choose from 9,475 active listings, nearly three times as many as a year ago when 3,240 homes and condos were offered for sale area-wide.

The Northwest MLS report shows about 2.1 months of inventory at the end of December, marking the fourth consecutive month with at least eight weeks of supply. Six counties, including King, Kitsap, and Snohomish, still have less than two months of supply.

Watch the 1.25 minute market report video…

Source: NWMLS 1/6/2023

RE/MAX National Housing Report for November 2022

Prices Moderate as New Listings and Home Sales Dip, For-Sale Homes Sit Longer

November begins a stretch of four months with typically the lowest home sales of the year – including December, January and February – and this November followed suit. Seasonality was just one factor contributing to November’s 12% drop in home sales from October in the report’s 53 metro areas as fluctuating interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainty weigh on the market.

New listings tumbled 21.4% from October – reaching their lowest point of the year ­­– as home sellers saw the Median Sales Price drop to $394,000. That was 1.3% less than October though still 3.7% higher than November 2021. The average Close-to-List Price Ratio in November was 98%, meaning that homes sold, on average, for 2% less than the asking price. The ratio was 101% a year ago and flat compared to October 2022.  

Other notable metrics include:
• Homes sold in November were on the market for an average of 39 days. That was four more days than in October and a full week more than in November 2021.
• November’s 2.5 months supply of inventory was up from 2.3 in October and more than double the 1.2 of one year ago.
• Though the fourth-highest year-to-date total, November’s 2.5 months supply of inventory was down 5.9% from October following month-to-month inventory increases of 3.9% in September and 2.9% in October.

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Washington State NWMLS Market Update for November 2022

Northwest MLS figures show both pending and closed sales fell sharply from a year ago, but median prices system-wide edged up slightly (0.88%), from $570,000 to $575,000. Pending sales across the 26 counties in the report were down 40% (dropping from 8,571 a year ago to 5,106) while closed sales fell 42% (declining from 8,976 to 5,194).

The volume of closed sales, at 5,194, was the lowest level since February (5,147) and January (5,085). Compared to January’s median price of $555,000, last month’s buyers paid 3.6% more ($575,000).

Inventory statistics were mixed. Brokers added 4,890 new listings during November, a decline of 24.2% compared to the same month a year ago when they added 6,455 new listings.

At month end, there were 12,245 total active listings, a whopping increase (about 165%) from the selection of a year ago when there were only 4,621 active listings.

Measured by months of inventory, November’s supply, at 2.36 months, was best since January 2019 when the overall selection reached 2.4 months of inventory. Fifteen of the 26 counties reported price increases from a year ago, with 11 counties having declines. All four counties in the Puget Sound region experienced modest price gains, ranging from about 1.1% in Kitsap County to 2.9% in Snohomish County.

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Source: NWMLS 12/5/2022

RE/MAX National Housing Report for October 2022

More Inventory, Fewer Homes Selling
As Sale Prices Slowly Dip

October revealed a vastly different housing market from one year ago, with 30.7% fewer closings, 36.8% more homes for sale, and the average home taking nearly a week longer to sell, at 35 days on market. As a result, the Median Sales Price was pushed down 0.3% to $399,000 from September’s $400,000 – the third straight month of decline.

Across the report’s 53 metro markets, all 10 months of 2022 thus far have posted lower home sales compared to 2021. October was the sixth consecutive month with more for-sale signs than the same month last year.

Compared to September, home sales in October were down 13.5% while inventory grew 2.9%. Homes were on the market one day longer.

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Washington State NWMLS Market Update for October 2022

The latest Northwest MLS stats show 6,435 pending sales last month, and about the same volume (6,464) of closed sales. Both figures were down from the year-ago totals, with pending sales dropping about 39% and closings declining around 35%.

Median sales prices still rose year-over-year in most of the 26 counties on the report. Area-wide, the median price on last month’s completed sales of single family homes and condominiums was $595,000. That was an increase of about 3.5% from twelve months ago, but a decline of approximately 9% from May when prices peaked at $660,000.

Last month’s closings in King County had a median price of $811,000, up more than 8% from the year-ago figure of $750,000.

Brokers added 7,260 new listings during October, down about 21% from the same month a year ago. At month end, the selection included 14,214 active listings of single family homes and condos system-wide. That was more than double the year-ago inventory of 6,588.

The uptick in supply boosted the months of inventory figure to 2.2. That is the highest level, based on this metric, since January 2019.

“Even with more choice on the market than we’ve seen in several years, pending sales fell last month,” remarked Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate. “The cause is almost certainly rising mortgage rates, which rose from 6.65% early in the month and ended above 7.1%; this is clearly having an impact on buyers,” he added.

Gardner believes many buyers may remain sidelined until mortgage rates stabilize, but added he had “bad news for those buyers who are sitting on the fence waiting for home prices to implode.” He expects regional home values will turn modestly negative in 2023, but said, “those who hope to pick up a home ‘on the cheap’ are likely in for a long wait.”

Also commenting on interest rates was the National Association of REALTORS®, which noted the slight dip in mortgage rates this week despite the Federal Reserve approving another 0.75% rate hike for the fourth time this year.

NAR cited Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed mortgage rate that fell to 6.95%, down from 7.08% the previous week. “It seems that rates have already priced in some of the effect of the Fed’s higher interest rates. It is also promising that this was likely the last rate hike of this magnitude, as indicated by the Fed,” wrote Nadia Evangelou, NAR’s senior economist and director of forecasting.

Evangelou also speculated “a return to the sky-high interest rates of the 1980s isn’t likely in today’s economy” and drew comparisons to payments now with those of 40 years ago in today’s money. “In real terms, after adjusting the median home price for inflation, the monthly mortgage payment was about $450 higher in 1982 than it is now,” she wrote in a blog, adding, “If mortgage rates were currently 9% the monthly mortgage payment would be comparable to 1982 rates. Thus, in real values, current buyers pay less for their home purchase than buyers who purchased their home 40 years ago, although home prices are significantly higher now.”

Watch the 1.5 minute market report video…

Source: NWMLS 11/7/2022

RE/MAX National Housing Report for September 2022

Inventory Grows, Home Prices Drop
as Homes Take Longer to Sell

Typical for this time of year, September home sales declined 9.7% from August across the report’s 53 metro areas. That led to inventory climbing to two months’ supply for the first time in nearly two years – an encouraging sign of a more balanced market to come.

September’s Median Sales Price of $400,000 was 6.1% lower than the year-high of $426,100 in June. The Median Sales Price dropped 1.2% below August’s but was 6.7% above September 2021. The average Close-to-List Price Ratio in September was 99%, meaning that homes sold for 1% less than the asking price for the second consecutive month after being at 100% or above through the first seven months of 2022.

Despite inventory growing 3.9% over August and 30.4% year-over-year, New Listings were down 7.6% month to month and down 11.4% compared to September 2021.

Other notable metrics include:
• September’s two months’ supply of inventory jumped from 1.6 months in August and 1.3 months a year ago. The National Association of REALTORS® last reported months’ supply of inventory above two in November of 2020, when it was 2.3.
• The number of homes for sale has grown in five of the past six months.
• Year-over-year, September home sales were down 23.5%.
• Days on Market averaged 34, five days higher than July and six days more than September 2021.

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Watch the 48 second summary video…